Tarim, you are quite silent as in last game when you were mafia. I would like to hear what plan you advocate using.

I like that Neb actually has a plan, and I prefer having some plan to no plan at all. We should modify it, of course...there's no need to have the doctor protect biscuit two nights in a row. Maybe even not one night...is he that useful that the mafia is going to want to kill him off?

Like's been said...the doc works best if he can actually STOP a kill, not just move it to someone else. The investigation list I can see working...the protection list, not so much.

Is Chunky ever going to post?

Maybe not even one night? Why in your plan did we have to protect you? Why would you want Biscuit investigated, only to be killed the same night? Interesting indeed...

Neb

When I originally made the plan, everyone in this game had an inflated image of my talent. If mafia, I was unstoppable. If town, I would sniff out all the mafia. If we actually HAD such a valuable townie, we definitely wouldn't want them dead.

We now know that I'm not that valuable that it's worth manipulating everything to clear me and keep me alive. I'm not sure Biscuit is, either. Granted, if we had to do it to SOMEONE, I'd prefer Biscuit...but, like I've said before, I was never too impressed with his skills as townie.

well what have I gotten myself into. I'm working 14 hour days this week and likely next, I have castles to rennovate and dogs to kick around and all this reading is putting me to sleep. I don't know how much help I'll be, but I'll post at least once a night, the good news is the weekend is almost here and I force myself to working only 6 or 7 hours a day! so can post more then.

1 day 4 pages!!!

I like the odds biscuit layed out in his earlier post. I like the idea of masons coming out and confirm, if they don't confirm each other who is to say we should believe them? greater odds of finding the det or doc? last game it was 1 in 7 first day...1 in 9 ain't so bad I think. It is important the doc be smart, let's not try to direct the doc who to save let him decide on his own. The town deciding on who to investigate by popular vote (should) be the smartest move keeping the det in hiding as long as possible, but we all hope he comes out soon with a hit on a mafia.

Of anyone so far i think kong needs to post more than just, "this is a big game" and then proceed to go quiet. I did check and he has been on at least once since then so what's up?

The same with gueritol. Posting one pointless comment surely does not help us to clear your innocence or lack there of.

I understand people can't post all the time, but at least take a minute to say you're going to be busy or whatever. Otherwise people will start making false assumptions everywhere.

As for chunky, i have a feeling he's either a mastermind of the highest caliber or he's completly lost. I'm leaning towards completly lost myself based on his "Im new here-trying to learn-help me out" thread. Maybe Oblivion should try to explain the game to him more if he hasn't already done so. Having everyone playing makes the game so much better.

hurray for cooples..hehhee if anyone needs help with anything im a very active member at the moment

I agree with Coopels regarding the non-posters. Gueritol has logged in enough to at least post his vote thread! The other guys have too.

darkguy: Why do you say there is no other solid plan? The Biscuit posted a good first solid plan before Neb's comments and it has merit. You may prefer Neb's plan since the masons come out later, but it's one that makes sense to me.

Morning again, all.
Corflu wanted to hear my thoughts. I stated what I believe is a firm plan yesterday although it's been glossed over in favour of the early fervour from some of the posters.

So we investigate and save Biscuit day 1? The mafia then make a definite kill on night 1.
For this plan to work the Detective MUST do his job, the Doctor has the power of BLUFF which is what a lot of people are forgetting.
Yes, we should all agree on 1 plan (ie. Biscuit), but the mafia will probably be going for another player (this is obviously true IF Biscuit is mafia anyway) so I'd recommend the Doc agreeing to the plan yet thinking hard about whether to save himself or Biscuit.

The idea of a list for the detective to follow is futile. If he's early on in the list then it wastes him a nights detection.
He can't exactly put his hand up and say "Can we skip me 'cos I'm the Gumshoe".
Also, it helps the mafia in choosing who to bump off (note the need for the Doctor's bluff, as mentioned earlier) each night.

There seems to be a group of players, not seemingly in agreement, trying to browbeat and confuse at an early stage and I for one am suspicious. Sage, for one, doesn't ring true this game at all.

More musings later.

Ok all, it appears that we have issues agreeing on a plan of action, which I don't think is good. Most of the disagreement seems to be if the masons need to come out or not. Part of the problem for me was just the odds of this vs. the odds of that...something I hadn't taken the time to bother to figure out. So I just crunched some numbers to get some actual odds and this is what I calculated:

Day 1- No one comes out

We have a 26.7% chance of lynching a mafia

They have a:
55% chance of hitting a normal townie
9% chance of hitting the doctor
9% chance of hitting the detective
9% chance of hitting the vigilante
18% chance of hitting one of the masons

Day 1- One mason comes out

We have a 28.6% chance of lynching a mafia

They have a:
60% chance of hitting a normal townie
10% chance of hitting the doctor
10% chance of hitting the detective
10% chance of hitting the vigilante
10% chance of hitting the hidden mason
100% chance of hitting the known mason if they choose to

Day 1- Both masons come out

We have a 30.7% chance of lynching a mafia

They have a:
67% chance of hitting a normal townie
11% chance of hitting the doctor
11% chance of hitting the detective
11% chance of hitting the vigilante
100% chance of hitting one of the masons if they choose to

Someone please verify my math!

If this is correct, then to me it would seem better to go ahead and have the masons come out. The increase of the mafias odds of hitting one of our power roles is only 2%, while the odds of us hitting one of them increases 4%, from a 1 in 4 chance to almost a 1 in 3 chance.

It also gives the detective 2 known townies to not WASTE a investigation on, thus increasing the odds he'll find a mafia.

Granted, this is based on only day 1, and only on math. It doesn't factor in gut feelings, slip-ups, activity or "the plan". It is strictly for discussing whether the masons come out or not, no matter what plan is being (or not being) followed.

Just thought it might be easier for everyone to make a decision with the cold, hard numbers out there

So, think about it and discuss it. I'm curious to hear everyone's thoughts...

Actually, my math IS wrong

Day 1 with no one coming out- We have a 36.4 % of getting a mafia

Day 1 with 1 mason coming out- We have a 40 % of getting a mafia

Day 1 with 2 masons coming out- We have a 44.4 % of getting a mafia

I think the rest of the math is right, but would like someone else to figure it as well.

One problem, Wasteland...the Masons don't need to come out day one for us to have the increased chance on the mafia. They only need to come out if they are about to be lynched. Otherwise they keep quiet and lower the mafia's chance to hit a good role.

Having them come out before that only gives an advantage to the mafia. It increases their percentage...not the town's.

Questionable math...questionable thinking...

And now I'll post some suspicions to get this thing moving...

Sage, remember how I didn't "rub" you the right way last game? Well, something about you is rubbing me. You just seem to be off this game...please keep posting so that I can figure it out.

tarim, I'm not getting anything good from you either. Again, not sure what it is, but it's there.

Renno. Could you BE any more mafia-ish? You just seemed to have turned 180 degrees from last game. Like Sage and tarim, I can't exactly point to it yet, but please keep posting, I'll figure it out.

That's all for now.

Neb

Ah, back to work and lots to read!

So, here are my thoughts, take them for what they are worth. (I will just say I am not paid for thinking but for doing, so you figure it out )

Seriously though, all of these plans rely on the Detective doing his job in a particular way. The Doc may or may not protect whomever, just as the Mafia may or may not try to hit whomever we pick for investigation under any of these plans. The point of these plans, in particular the list, is that we are trusting that the Detective does his job as we expect but still remain hidden if he does not find a mafia. Sure, it might be an assumtion, but its a good starting point. As with everything in this game we have to decide who is telling the truth. By following a plan and seeing how people react to that plan I think it gives us a better chance at figuring out who the Mafia might be. We can do the 'I know that you now that I know that you know' dance all we want, but at some point we have to make a decision. THAT is why I continue to support the basic plan and would even go along with most of Neb's suggested changes.

Oh, and Wasteland, your original math is right, but the way you look at the numbers is wrong. You say it increases the odds of the mafia hitting one of our power roles by 2%. That is incorrect. The increase in the chance of hiting a PARTICULAR power role is 2%. The chances of them hitting ANY power role are increased by 6%. I think that is unacceptable EXPECIALLY when Mason's can time their comming out party.

Wasteland, as several people have pointed out, your math is fuzzy.

Misleading. You're also posting more than usual.

Hm...I think I may cast my vote to Wasteland. To pressure him a bit, see what happens.

I think you guys should trust the detective to know who to investigate. Having a majority vote only helps the mafia, who have FOUR votes. The detective, working alone, is smart enough to sniff out the mafia.

======
Mod Note:

Doc can't protect himself... As I said in the last game I moderated.

If you're knocked unconcious, how do you propose to protect yourself?
======

Wasteland, as several people have pointed out, your math is fuzzy - Sage.

Sage, whats' wrong with Wastelands' math? He's not suggesting a plan of action, he's giving us the relative odds depending on who comes out.

@Corflu: Didn't see Biscuit's plan. I skimmed most of Pages 2 and 3 and probably overlooked it.

Well, I didn't intend to be fuzzy...that's Mog's job

2+2=4, 4/2=2 Math is math...it's either right or wrong, but I don't see how it can be "fuzzy".

mwmoss- Thanks for pointing that out...I didn't even think about the 2% adding up FOR EACH ROLE, so the 6% increase for the mafia outweighs the 4% increase for us meaning that the masons should indeed stay hidden. That's exactly why I wanted someone to check behind me!

dark- Indeed, I am not suggesting a course of action. I was hoping that we would all basically agree on the Sage/Biscuit/Day 1 plan, or a close variation, for reasons I have already stated. The math was just to help decide if the masons should come out.

Sage- "You're also posting more than usual." Actually, I'm posting the same as I did last game. If you had actually PLAYED last game, you would know that!
Pressure me all you want...

Side note- It's my long weekend to work, so my posting will be limited until Monday afternoon (gametime).

I just meant that he was misrepresenting. 2% is a lot more attractive than 6%, but 6% is the reality.

I forgot to cast my vote earlier when I said that, but now I don't feel like it's deserved anymore.

First day 4 pages, today I come in and we are still on page 4, tsk tsk tsk. I agree tarim the doc bluff is the towns best defense, but so what if the detective gets put on that list? Why couldn't he just take that opportunity to investigate somebody else NOT on the list or bump up the list on his own (oops I read the list wrong), he doesn't need to investigate himself he knows he is pro-town lol so it would be a good opportunity to bust a mafia when they least expect it.

Waste glad to see the numbers, it helps but I just don't know. My inexperienced mind of this game says it's best to come out, but I'll ride the fence on that issue and leave the decision making to the better experienced players(and more particularly the masons).

Neb, what is so mafiaish I'd like to know, is this a rollover from last game? I swear I should start my own family in real life (since I'm so mafia like)as I'd definately make more money. I do like killing people though so maybe that just rubs off...and speaking of being rubbed wrong I admit you had me fooled last game but now I've seen your play. So far I've heard some good strats and then you come along with a "better one" with YOUR sound logic, but others don't totally agree so maybe it's not so sound?

Sage you also sound off, don't agree with your own plan any more? I'd hate the thought of you and neb BOTH mafia this game.

moss I like your reasoning, it sure sounds pro-town to me, at least it's a lot less confusing than neb or sage.

I get the feeling there are a few who will post very little, this could make things more difficult or maybe it won't matter too much, we'll see.

The only "plan" so far I can put my hand up to is a list for the detective to follow(until he finds 1 and comes forward), this will keep him safe until it's time to speak and beneficial to the town. However I don't think we should make a set list day 1, I think we should commonly agree each day who is 2nd most suspicious to investigate, THE most suspicious we can just kill.

Still no posts from Chunky or Geuritol. Its quiet, too quiet.