Yes, Coopels. In order for the "plan" to work, the plan must be followed by the doctor and the detective or else it just all falls apart. The only way I think for this to happen is to get everyone to say that they concur (the mafia will have to concur as well or people will think they are mafia). If anyone doesn't concur with this plan, then again, the plan falls apart.

mwmoss, I generally agree with you. First the plan has to be accepted by everyone, a lot of discussion about who to lynch has to occur, then just before we finalize our votes, the two masons come out. Day 2 would might be better, except that we risk losing one of them in a night kill. I think my previous post explains the thought logic behind this better.

Exactly Biscuit, but with 15 players i doubt everyone is going to follow the plan exactly how it is meant to work. If any one element fails to happen the plan becomes useless and in fact helps the mafia confuse us. It happened in the last game, and i know i tried to use it the first game it was proposed. Even if everyone decides to go ahead with the "plan" to make it work, then there is still cause for concern. If the mafia get lucky and/or finds the detective or doctor the first night then the plan fails. Even if the vigilante kills either of them by mistake the plan fails.

The only thing we really get is another townie to trust or a dead mafia guy, not much of an advantage with 4 mafia though. We already can have 2 trusted townies with the masons in this game so i see this plan as a fruitless endeavour. What's a third townie going to be able to do that the two masons can't do themselves and without revealing the detective early. Also with a plan like this the doctor and the detective are tied up doing the will of the town which includes the hidden mafia. Which means the mafia can influence our most useful roles in the game doing meaningless tasks that ultimately doesn't mean anything later in the game.

This plan has a record for failing and it has hurt us everytime as townies. That's why i think we should stay away from it and I personally am going to be suspicious of anyone who promotes a flawed plan like this.

@Oblivion - you can bring references and examples from the past as much as you want. You can also tell us about your busy schedule and your star role in one musical or another. That's impressive but totally besides the point. You have a job to perform and it's CRUCIAL in the mafia game- regardless of what type it is. There must be an excellent story and I can't wait to see some more of your writing. The new roles are fun but let's see some creativity here.

@Biscuit - For your plan to work, everyone must come out. Masons, detective, doctor, maybe even vigilante. Not only that this will not happen for a million and one reasons, which immediately voids the plan, but also is totally impractical because mafia members can claim to be anything they want. Platers A & B will come out and say 'We are the masons'. 5 minutes later two mafia members will do the same and claim 'No, WE are the mafia members'. So not until the night after that, will the detective be able to come out and confirm one or the other. Also, if we investigate you first, that postpones the whole value of the masons coming out, as the detective will still have to investigate them the day after... if he is still alive after confirming you.

So, if we follow your plan Biscuit and the masons come out, plus on the first night the doc and detective investigate/protect you, we are totally paralysed.

There will be no agreement as the doctor might still want to protect himself in secret, there will be no confirmation on the masons, you- even as mafia get a free night for yourself and your mafia members while an innocent townie is lynched, on top of the mafia taking out another person (and they might just hit a special role by chance).

I'm following your own method Biscuit from your last game. You don't sound like yourself and unlike your "gut feelings" from last game which were NOT supported by any shred of evidence, I on the other hand, not only feel that you're suspicious, but also view your suggestion as extremely dangerous to the town. It will expose ALL our assets without any gain to the town and allow the mafia a few free steps against us.

i thought about that fact too sanshiro. The mafia very well could counter a claim by the masons, but that means once we figure out which group is telling the truth by lnyching one guy, then the other guy is also a mafia or a townie.

For the masons to come out they need to support each other. No townie is going to support a mafia guy's claim of being a mason so it would have to be two mafia that try to counter claim. I'd be happy if they tried that since we'd get two mafia members right there at the cost of possibly one mason.

I'm glad both Coops and San have taken the 'plan' with a pinch of salt.
I think Renno's idea that I expounded upon is far more realisticially balanced in the town's favour; 1 Leader emerges on day 1 (IF the votes are heading to lynch them, point taken mwmoss about 'any time' to reveal, as late as practical being the operative time imo.)
If there is a challenge then Leader 2 might be forced to back up, escalating to a second mafia challenging for the post of Leader 2.
Either way, upon detective and doc working together on this, the truth would hopefully be out after one night exposing up to two mafia.

Sanshiro, you are being misleading about what I said. My proposed plan says that only the masons need to come out. The investigator only comes out if he finds a mafia person. The doctor never comes out. The doctor and the detective remain hidden. And your logic is flawed. If we get two counter claims by mafia, then we have two dead mafia to add to our kills because, even if we lynch a mason, then we know they are right and the two mafia that counter-claimed are defintely mafia. And that's a 50/50 only. We only increase our odds of winning with this strat as far as I can see. Coopels clearly sees that. Why can't you unless you are mafia and you know it'll work to your disadvantage.

I suggest we have more discussions, then finalize the plan and put it to a vote. If we get a unanimous yes, then we go ahead with it. If not, then we can continue to go in circles. Please help me prove that the townies can all band together for a single unified plan.

On a final note Sanshiro, normally Sage is taking lead for the townies and I sit back and watch mostly, then make my best deductive guess at the end of turn 1. I will still do that, but I also have to try to lead and form a plan based on Sage's original idea, because I still think there is merit to it, IF and only IF everyone follows it. Hence, the vote later.

Was wording this while you posted, Coops. I'm glad to be in partial agreement with someone's train of thought, but I think leaking one leader at a time is a stronger tactic than both together. I would like this to be the turn 1 gameplan rather than the Biscuit plan.

And when I said was wording this I meant the post before Biscuit's interjection.

Thanks for pointing that out Coopels. I was just about to say that! I also wanted to point out to Sanshiro that you are wrong and that the Doc and Detective do NOT have to reveal themselves following 'The Buscuit Plan'. That is part of the plan! The last two games were very poor examples or maybe good examples of what can go wrong. In both games the Detective got tagged early before revealing himself and in one the Doc got modkilled early! Hardly good case studies.

@Biscuit - I'm not being misleading, I'm being mislead or even better than that, I'm exposing flaws in your 'plan'.

For the plan to work the detective must come out. Otherwise what good is anyone's 'confirmation'? It is your logic that is flawed and since I know you... I believe this is no mistake.

Even if you get two counter claims by mafia to the true masons, it will take you two extra days (after the first day of investigation, to get rid of them. These two extra days when we lynch those two mafia, are all it takes for the other two to finish the game. That will be three days, after investigating you (that means 4 days altogether), that we waste on eliminating two mafia members while they revel in our disorganisation.... and in the process take out three innocents and the detective.

Yes, we can all band together in our agreement on not going with that silly plan. While I blame Sage for introducing it in the first place, I can only praise the mafia for using it as an efficient tool to saw havoc in the Town's decision making process.

If and when the masons come out, exposing just one of them will be the greatest folly there is. That will ensure that the mafia has a safe kill every night. Come on people, we know the doctor will not always protect the person the town needs protecting. Ultimately he has his own agenda, if not just saving his own skin. We saw that clearly last game where the doctor protected himself even when there were no fingers pointing in his direction in any way.

Last point - mwmoss, it's true that the doctor doesn't have to reveal himself under the Biscuit plan (plagiarised from Sage) but the detective clearly has to, otherwise what guarantee do we have that anyone was exonerating someone else with the credentials to do it?!

That 'plan' is a waste of time, especially in such a game as this one, when there are so many people and wasting time on one person might make all the difference.

Well, I'm willing to go with the plan if for no other reason than nobody has offered us a better option to go with. I think it's better to follow a plan, even if it MIGHT have a flaw, than to not follow any kind of plan at all. And so far, this is really the only plan that has been proposed...so unless someone has a better idea

The masons on day 2...or late day 1 do seem the best time. I'm taking Biscuit's math/odds at face value.

I think we can probably get everyone on board for either this plan, or a similar, slightly varied one. The concern I have is whether or not we will be able to agree on a list (who and what order) for the detective. To me, that will be a critical decision (maybe the most critical) that we make this game.

Thoughts?

All of this talk of the detective needs to investigate "me first" and we need a list for him to go by is B.S.
The detective should be involved in discussions and make his own judgement about who he investigates and only come forward if he nails a mafia. I seriously don't like the idea of anyone knowing who the detective is just to prove your innocence. It does nothing to help the town as a whole. It merely solves some of the personal issues that some of you have with each other.

As for the masons, my vote is for both to come out. I have explained why I think that and I find corresponding arguments from several others that this is our best course of action not only from a mathematical standpoint but a logical standpoint.

Bud- Unless I missed something, the detective WILL only come out if he finds a mafia. Other than finding mafia, he remains hidden and continues down 'the list'. We need a list so that we know ahead of time, day by day, who is being investigated...and if we don't hear from the detective, we know those people are fellow townies.

The doc can then choose who to protect from the 'already cleared' list randomly, so the mafia don't know who to go for.

The only two flaws are if the detective doesn't follow the plan to the letter, or if the mafia get an early hit on him. Unless I'm missing something else...

Point One: Sanshiro, allowing the detective to protect himself is an abberation. It's uncommon, for many moderating reasons. I don't think Oblivion is going to allow it. Are you, Oblivion?

Point Two: After thinking about it, the "investigate me first!" list is hurting the town. The kind of players who volunteer to be investigated are EXACTLY the type we don't need to investigate. However, if we go by that rule, the mafia can fake us out. I propose that the detective simply ignore all pleas to be investigated.

Point Three: If you guys want, I'll be happy to support everyone in dispensing ANY sort of "plan." Plans only work, like has been said, when everyone works together toward a very small goal. Rather than doing that, we should just play the old fashioned way...look for mafia connections.

Point Four: The ideal time for the masons to come out is Day 2. However, Day 1 is almost as acceptable. There's no chance of the mafia counterclaiming them, because what kind of mafia would want to sacrifice two of their members to take out MASONS?

But really, back to the topic of the detective. I think we can trust the detective in this game to be intelligent and investigate people who have a high chance of being mafia. Allowing the town to direct the detective is a bad idea because there are FOUR mafia...they could easily lead the detective in the wrong direction. After much thought, I reject the idea of an investigation list.

Where are Chunky and gueritol? I'd like to hear from them on this plan, the game, why they are mafia...whatever.

I think the masons don't come out. Really they have no special ability...ooooh, they can talk to EACH OTHER...big deal. If one of them is about to be lynched, they just say they are a mason, and we leave them alone. Unless somebody speaks up, we can believe them (as long as they are both alive). So, no need to narrow down the mafia's selection the first night. If one of them dies, there is really no point to the masons, and who cares if anyone claims to be one...it means nothing at that point. (Unless they become a target of a lynch, but even a regular townie can't defend against that, so no big deal anyway, right?) I see the masons working on a buddy system to watch each others back if the lynch heads their way. So they should stay hidden and never come out. Why narrow down the mafia's hit list on day 1 or 2?

I still think we need a plan for investigation so that the townies know who to trust. Yes, the mafia might kill that person the next night, but we'll always be one ahead of them. Without it, it is easy to counter claim the detective when he comes out...I should know! (My proudest mafia moment ever!) The only problem is, we don't want to investigate the masons as it is a wasted investigation. However, we do not need to form a list now. We can get a concensus on that day, and have one person direct the detective....

Here is my plan.

Night 1. Biscuit is investigated and saved.
Day 2. We discuss who to investigate next. Biscuit has final say and direction since he is clear.
Night 2. Investigate Player X. Doc should still protect Biscuit.
Day 3. Discussion on who to investigate next. Biscuit has final say. At this point, the special role players would come out and we really narrow down our options for mafia.
etc., etc...

Flaws with my plan...we don't want to waste investigations on the special roles...but it may be necessary. If we tell the detective to investigate himself, then he will do his own thing. By day 3, there should be at least 3 special roles left...two that matter if a mason is killed. And if we've lynched all citizens, then it should be really easy at that point to get the mafia.

Okay, I gotta go...everyone think on that layout and let me know the flaws.

Neb

Having a list for the detective to investigate assumes that the detective will follow the list. We have no real knowledge if he's going to follow a list of people or not and so we can't rely on it. That's also the main problem with "the plan." Without the detective coming out the next day then we have no real guarentee that the detective investigated Biscuit or whoever the plan is targeting. I'm all for the plan, i'm just sceptical that it will accomplish anything.

The mason role just doesn't seem to help us at all. I can't think of a way that them staying hidden or coming out really helps the town. I thought before that they should come out right away so that they'd become targets for the mafia and therefore limiting the chance the mafia would hit the doctor or detective. Now though, it seems that even that wouldn't help us since if they come out and get hit we learn nothing from their deaths, which we'll need to find out the mafia.

Right now Neb's plan seems pretty sound (even though it's just Sage's plan modified slightly) once you throw in that the detective comes out day 2 with the knowledge of Biscuit's (or whomevers) innocence or guilt. Without that element we really don't have any real knowledge of the detective's inquiry unless they come out with that knowledge.

Also i think you mean doctor in your point one, Sage.

I am still in favor of the plan and want to have The Biscuit be the center of it. I agree we should name it the “Turn 1 plan” instead of “The Biscuit Plan”, though we could still call it “The Sage Plan” and use it on someone else since granted Sage is the author of it.

Sage/Sanshiro: The Doctor can protect himself, but I do not see how the Detective can protect himself. Was that intended or a mistyping?

Neb: If we have the doctor protect Biscuit night 1, and night 2, doesn’t that just give the mafia free reign to kill off whomever they want knowing they will be unprotected? Especially if the Masons come out. They will be dead ducks. I agree with you for that reason that the Masons should not come out day 1. And are you really saying the detective should investigate himself and then announce it???

I advocate Doctor protecting Biscuit night one. And if the Masons come out they come out night 2. Then the doctor decides who he wants to protect. Telling the mafia in advance loses the advantage of the doctor, where he can ‘catch’ them. If he is on Biscuit every day, that is not a winning strategy.

Sage: Having the masons come out day 1 is not a good thing as I mentioned above. Day 2 as you say may be worthwhile, but day 1 just makes for an easy kill and then no mason advantage(if that is much of an advantage). One person can not talk to themself for advice.

Coopels: For the plan to work, there is not that much that needs to happen. Just 2 people need to follow their roles, the doctor and the detective. Whether a game with 8 or 15 its just those 2 that will see the plan through.

Gueritol / Chunky: Please post your thoughts. Or at least post. More discussion leads to more discovery.

Now that we have some thought to a plan, I would like to start seeing some nominees. I do not know how much time we have but the sooner we start conjecturing the sooner we get to a result. I do not want to delay like last game.

while personally I see more benefit from the Masons coming out day one I would be willing to vote for an ammended plan that would have them come out on day 2..

I can't make head nor tale of the last parts. All I can gather is that Neb is the only guy with a plan set in stone, and thats' good, we need plans 'coz with four mafia, if we don't have one we're preeeeeeety doomed.

Nobody's too suspicious as of now IMO anyway. Everyones' arguing over the new dimension of the Masons (as we've never played them before) but what about the Vigilante Neb?

Anybody else have a good, solid plan that gives us better winning odds than say, randomly lynching people via random number generation?

The main problem with the Masons' coming out prematurely is not that THEY become sitting ducks, its that the DOCTOR and DETECTIVE become sitting ducks, well, not really, but they ARE more exposed to mafia because the mafia know that one (or possibly two) of them are normal citizens (considering that the Masons' ability ain't that great in affecting the mafia) so they can aim for the detective or doc. I mean, if the mafia knew the two masons, they'd have a 1/8 chance of hitting the doc or detective plus that'd tie down our doc in the bargain.

So I'm not quite sure what to do as of right now.