I know these people too, possibly even better than you, because many of them are regulars in IRC. I don't think darkguy is of the type to vote for himself if he were town. It feels like a ploy.

Corflu and Sanshiro are easy targets, especially because of their roles in the last game. I think you may be being opportunistic in attacking them. I don't see a particularly strong case against either...can you present one? And the idea that they're partners together...THAT'S a real stretch.

I value your input, of course, but only if you present your case. I can't take your word, obviously, because you could easily be mafia.

Will someone PLEASE put the deathvote on me!?

Ignore darkguy. Put the deathvote on him!

if someone gives me leave to vote twice!

Perhaps I wouldn't be the type to vote for myself if I were town. But I see no other end to the day in the foreseeable future, so lets play Sages' plan and hope 75% is enough.

Sage, how do I even begin explaining personalities of the people I know fairly well and how they are being uncharacteristically "followers" in this game and how I read each post both ways (as mafia and as townie) to find subtle inconsistencies. And how the other two (DG & Oblivion) offer reasonable, engaging and seemingly honest posts of their thought processes.

While I think you have your mind made up and DG is about to die, at least promise me that if DG turns up as a townie, you'll vote for either Corflu or Sanshiro next.

I'll consider it. Corflu is on the list of people voting for darkguy, so if darkguy is innocent, corflu has a 25% chance of being mafia. I'll go with who I think is the best possibility, though.

Please consider the possibility that, after failing so utterly in the last game, Corflu and Sanshiro changed the way that they played?

Biscuit! Vote me!

You heard the man, Biscuit.

Sorry, I just can't, DG. Because I truly believe you are a townie.

yes, vote today

The Colonel wants YOU!

(heh)

You think DG is a townie AND you disagree with the probability of success following my plan?

Yes, Sage.

Care to give us an alternate plan, along with the probabilities of its success?

There are no guaranteed probabilities in this game. Even yours as very suspect because you make some assumptions about what the mafia did or didn't do. I have to go with my gut instinct on most things for this game. Sometimes I'm wrong, but I have a better probability of being more right than wrong in the games I've played. But only because I get to know the people I play with and what the are capable of and what that aren't. If these were all new players, then I'd agree with you. But because I've seen and analyzed a bit of how many of them play and their personalities, I find that there are some things that give people away when they are lying....sort of like non-verbal clues...but these are written clues that seem a bit out of character when they are not telling the truth. Again, it is my most educated guess based on what they write. Some people come across truthful to me, others do not, and some I don't get a real sense of one way or another (my Unsure's). But I cannot vote for someone I truly beleive is telling the truth. Because this game is so unbalanced, if we guess wrong twice, we lose. I will not be party to something I truly believe to be a wrong guess.

Even if you don't have a full game plan, can you at least present some sort of logical case against either Sanshiro or Corflu? Point out these clues that you're talking about?

I've seen you play in the past, Biscuit, and YOU'RE dropping some clues. This is not your usual style. I know you're capable of more than gut instinct.

In Corflu's case, he made early reference to me in his first post. It's a seed of suspicion planted, even while he tries to pay a compliment. Normally, Corflu is like you and I, Sage. He'd either be trying to manipulate like last game (if mafia), or taking the lead in a lynching party like us (if townie). He learned a bit from last game, but not enough. This is just one of the clues. I really hate to give more because it just makes them play better and I lose my edge!

You and I both have a knack for manipulation, as has been shown by our past games. Corflu, obviously, doesn't, as has been shown by his past games. You can be a very intelligent person and still not be great at mafia. It takes a special kind of intelligence.

If you really expect me to deviate from set plans, plans that are backed by math, because of your gut feeling, you obviously don't know me to well. But I know that you DO know how I play, which is why it's so weird that you're posting like this.

Not posting a case against someone who you think is mafia is NOT pro-town behavior. If you have a case, post it. I don't think you have a case.

I don't have a strong case. But neither do you. Normally, I'd just back you because we have extra expendable townies. But this time, if we lynch two of us, we lose. That's probably why I'm a bit more adamant this time. I do not want to see a townie lynched. And I believe DG to be townie. While I don't have air tight solid cases on Day 1 (do we ever?), the hunch/vibe/feeling I get from Corflu and Sanshiro is fairly strong. You asked me to post what my hunches were and I did and then you asked for more details and I provided some. Well, I have to vote my hunches. And you have to do your plan. Only time will tell which way would have been better.

Since tarim voted Corflu, I'll switch to Corflu as well. At least he'll get a good second place showing!