If you're willing to do yourself in then I don't think you're mafia. I think we should all rethink doing away with darkguy, rethink the No Lynch and probably concentrate on the less involved posters. Currently, finding out what happenned to kong's vote is quite important, as is seeing whether Corflu's edited post warrants a modkill or even a lynching in itself.
It's the most dubious thing we've seen so far.
While I wait I'm changing my vote for the 5th time to Corflu.

It's impossible for kong to have deleted his own post. The only way it could have happened was a mistake by somebody with mod powers.

Keep in mind, Tarim, that darkguy could have done that PRECISELY because of that impression it would give people. By voting himself, he might be mafia trying to save himself.

I also stress again that, even if darkguy is innocent, it gives us sooooo many clues as to who the next mafia member is! It'd be three out of four people! We'd have a 75% chance of getting it right tomorrow!

It's highly unlikely that DG is mafia based on his postings and actions now. I would suggest we all either vote for Sanshiro or Corflu. I'm leaving my vote as it is for now. If/when I get mafia-killed, please look at my list of suspects again. The recent postings after my list was posted makes me think I was dead on. It's hard for the townies to know exactly what to do and Sage should help run the lynchings. But please relook at the two people that I'm pretty sure are mafia.

Ok...here's my conundrum.

One of the biggest attractions to lynching darkguy (I have now unvoted) was the idea that, if he was innocent, we'd have a huge chance of catching the mafia.

Look at it this way...he's been on 5 votes for so long, if there were any mafia left, they'd have surely put the final vote on. Especially when the circumstances were such that nobody would have blamed them.

If we knew for SURE he was innocent, we would have a list of 5 people to pick out of to get our remaining 3 mafia.

Sage
Coopels
Kong
Oblivion
Corflu

After the night investigation, I would be proven innocent. That would leave us with a 3 in 4 chance...75% chance of getting a mafia! After that, the detective would investigate someone else, and we'd have a 100% chance of getting the mafia!

That is, assuming I'm correct that the mafia would have put the deathvote on Darkguy...I see no reason why they wouldn't have. Can anybody present a reason why the mafia wouldn't have put the final vote on darkguy, had they been able to?

If darkguy were guilty, that would leave us with with 4 people to choose from. With the detective's help, we could almost surely get the rest of them, too!

Like I said, though, I've unvoted darkguy. I want to discuss this with everyone first. Is my theory wrong? The only way I can see it being wrong is if someone can present a reason why the mafia wouldn't have finished off darkguy when he was at 5 votes.

I suggest we all vote off DG now.

Sage's plan is completely logical.. in a total non-drool way.

It simply makes a whole hell of a lot of sense...
IF DG is innocent, and sage is investigated tonight, that brings the list of suspects to four of us.. whom we can pick off in a nice orderly fashion. DO IT NOW.

If DG is Mafia, then we look to the rest of the people, not the five voting for DG, and we must find two more out of them. It is really a grand plan to vote off DG. Vote DG Now...

What if not all the mafia voted for DG just for this reason? Then you may only have a 2 or 1 in 5 chance. I would really rather kill a mafia person on day 1, than a non-mafia person in a rather iffy method of trying to trap them.

There are clues in Sanshiro's and Corflu's posts that really raise my suspicions and allow to me to believe they are both mafia. Even Neb gave us some hints. He didn't immediately mod-kill Corflu for editting a post suggesting that he is mafia. I doubt Neb would have hesitated so much if he was a normal townie.

I'm not sure the plan works.

If I get voted off, and then I get shown innocent (plus the whole Sage thing), there are FOUR people left. How on earth will we know which one ISN'T the mafia?

The culminative odds of continually hitting mafia are 75%, 66% and 50%. Those aren't spectacular odds for a plan that makes "a whole hell of a lot of sense".

How do you plan on finding the innocent among the mafia?

*Agrees with Biscuit*.

the detective would help increase the odds of course!

Of course. Does the detective give the town 100% winning odds?

If darkguy is innocent, the first person we would lynch is Oblivion, for obvious reasons.

The second person I would want to lynch is Corflu. I believe he would be mafia too.

The third person would be either kong or Coopels...I suspect Coopels of being more capable of deception than Kong. But for the moment, the idea of exposing two mafia is really, really nice.

If Darkguy is guilty, I think we should follow up with The Biscuit. The third scum partner would be harder to find, but I think there is reason to believe darkguy would be connected to Biscuit.

Biscuit, you're engaging in Wine in Front of Me kind of thoughts. "Well, maybe the mafia ACTED like mafia just to make us think that mafia WOULDN'T act so much like mafia, except maybe they'd know we thought that, so they acted innocent..."

Take things at face value. It'd be more valuable for the mafia to lynch an innocent than to confuse us...since the only reason they'd want to confuse us is to lynch an innocent!

I'm placing my vote back on darkguy. I thought of hedging, but I genuinely believe he's the best play for today.

Also, Oblivion, shut up.

Of course you do realize the fact that Sage posted his plan that the mafia will be trying to UNvote me as quickly as possible, so as to not get caught in Sages' trap?

Lets' try figuring out the odds with the detective, saying that out of the four after I get killed, three are mafia.

Well, we're screwed just on Day 2, because the detective used his search on Sage. There you have it. 75% odds aren't high enough to guarentee a townie win, so the plan is flawed.

pretty damn close...

day one, kill dg
find out what he was
day two, fork

a-dg was mafia+sage is mafia
we kill sage, two mafia down, and doc protects det

b-dg was mafia+sage is innocent
we look to the other players and we've killed a mafia: hoozah!

c-dg was innocent+sage is mafia
we kill sage, one mafia down, look to the other four for the remaining two mafia, and doc protects det

d-dg was innocent+sage is innocent
we look to the other four voting dg and kill one, the det investigates one, come out the next day, and we kill another etc etc

D) I believe is the key plan for analysis.

Again your logic is flawed.
"we look to the other four voting dg and kill one"
Right. How are you sure who you kill is mafia? Remember, after I'm dead you can't afford another mislynch.

New plan?

75% is REALLY, REALLY good odds for mafia, darkguy. Better odds than we'll have in any other situation.

I'll do a fork, kind of like Oblivion did.

Darkguy is innocent.

We have 5 players to choose from. The detective investigates one (me), so we have a 75% chance to get mafia. That's a huge chance, considering that it's only 75% if we pick RANDOMLY. Using our powers of deduction, we're almost sure to get one.

The next day, we have 3 players who have their identities in question and two mafia. On this day, the detective should step forward, proclaim me innocent, and tell us the results of his night investigation. If he gets a guilty, we lynch that player. If he gets an innocent, we know the remaining two are mafia.

The next day, we have 2 players left to choose from. I'll possibly be dead. The detective tells us his night investigation. There's a 50% chance he'll have a guilty. We lynch, and win!

That's pretty close to 100% winning odds. But that's only if you're innocent.

If you're guilty, we see a different situation unfolding.

We kill you, that leaves us with 4 players to pick from, two of whom are mafia. However, in that situation, we can afford a mislynch! So lets assume that we pick wrong the first day. We then have 3 players to pick from, 2 of whom are mafia. Detective comes forward again, and we have it.

It's not an entirely foolproof plan, and I welcome anyone to come up with something that gives us better odds. But I'm confident enough of this plan to go through with it!

examining b from a mathematics standpoint

(for those who don't know.. i am studying to be a math teacher, unless i get an nsa codebreaking scholarship)

four people, 3 are mafia.. so we have a 75% shot at killing a mafia day two. Detective investigates during the night, either we have a guaranteed day three lynch, or we have a guaranteed non-lynch, either way, we get a mafia member day three.. and then the night 3 the detective either investigates the last of the four to be alive and uninvestigated, or investigates one of the two alive an uninvestigated. day four, he tells us the result, and we lynch the person investigated if he is guilty or the other if he is innocent

in the off case that both remaining men are innocent, we have 3 confirmed innocents, sage and the other 2 investigated, plus the detective
so we look to whoever's left to find the last mafia member...


(i copied and read sages post and then pasted this back into the window.. and i know i'm basically repeating what he said.. sorta differently.. but mostly repeating.. but well.. i didn't type it to not send it.. so i am sending it anyway :p)

True, but I feel rather uneasy with anything that isn't foolproof. I'll agree with it only if there's no better way, and it's unlikely that we WILL find a better way, so I guess thats' that.

Remember, we're not entirely sure all the mafia is voting for me. If they WERE, then yes, you have your 75%. But what if only TWO are mafia? You have only 50%, and I see that would make it a bit more likely to fail.

You have to analyze everything.

oh and i meant to have more figures in there. but i was typing quick trying to beat sage to posting.. but oh well


i guess i need to say its more sequential than mathematical...

Exactly Oblivion. You DID just rephrase Sages' post and you haven't actually said anything new there. Try finding the mathematical odds or whatever if only two mafia are voting for me, instead of parroting everytihng Sage says.