I’m not going to vote for anyone yet because I’m not completely certain of anyone’s connections or at least I haven’t had any of my suspicious confirmed yet. I agree that Oblivion’s quick condemnation of dark is rather suspicious, but in my opinion it isn’t enough to confirm that he is mafia.

The name thing was entertaining at first, but now it’s starting to seem a little silly. I don’t think Neb would have influenced the game by placing significance to the roles he assigned. So far Corflu’s approach seemed the most practical, but even that is just random guessing and it probably won’t go anywhere because there are so many connections between the different characters that it becomes impossible to guess the right one. (Assuming there is any connection at all)

A question towards kong. Does your previous post on Wednesday, January 03, 2007 at 10:19 mean that the doctor should protect the detective tonight instead of Sage? If so I am wondering what kind of logic points to the fact that the doctor could/should save the detective when the detective is rather safe by being unknown. At the same time if we lose Sage (because of the doctor saving the detective) we lose our most valuable townie, which somehow I don’t think we can afford.



By the way, what is the Jack in the Box? I’ve never heard of that character.

you have a point.. doc just party

A few things.

1. I can promise everyone of you that it is my EXPRESS belief that there is a correlation between the characters and the roles.

2. I can promise everyone that I am not mafia.

3. I can promise everyone that I am not sure why I put a number three...

anyway...

I still think voting for DG is a good way, but for two reasons, he usually opposes my logic loudest, and i may need to apply some later, aaaand i think that my number one explains why...

so now i go vote for DG

oh and sage, i promise you, i am not mafia

Now I'm not only entertained ( ) by the post above, but also reassured that Oblivion is NOT mafia.... after all he 'promised'!

Sage said something earlier "My suspicion right now is turned to Oblivion, for so quickly jumping on the darkguy bandwagon. I made it clear that I wanted to pressure darkguy, not lynch him." Sage may have only wanted to pressure darkguy, but it seems that Oblivion has some hidden agenda here, as he keeps trying to convince us to vote for darkguy. It is rather interesting!

So what if darkguy 'opposes your logic the loudest' Oblivion?! That should definitely NOT be a reason to vote for him, for he may simply be loud. I know I am sometimes, but at least I try *shrug* to make sense.

However Oblivion, seeing as your arguments sum up in "believe me", I'm most tempted to put your name up as well. I hope we won't make a mistake here as there's still not enough weighty evidence against you Oblivion, but you sure are making us fret!

I realllly can't believe this...

mwmoss, I'm not "colluding" with tarim, I agree with him. Sage is systematically forcing everyone under pressure to see how they react to it.

I'm going to say this one last time: NEB HIMSELF has said there is no correlation between characters and roles. So Coops isn't the doctor BECAUSE he is the Wendys' girl, etc. Neb would have used a pair of random numbers to assign both the role and the character. Linking the role and the character would have been too... well, it'd kinda spoil the game if there was something else besides just the "conversation thread", which is how we are supposed to figure out who to lynch.

How many players? Ten, right? Hmmm... Suppose we try No Lynch? Lets' analyze it:

7 citz - 3 mafia. Mafia hit, 6-3. If we mislynch, its' still 4-3.

Therefore its' a plausible option. It means we only must have a correct lynch by Day 3, which is better than the odds we have if we mislynch Day 1.

Then again we could vote No Lynch Day 2 instead. But I think we should, (of course this is if we vote No Lynch AT ALL) do it on Day 1, watch what the mafia does, get some more conversation, analyze the thread carefully and be able to make a calculated guess on Day 2, when we have seen what the mafia has done, as well as having two days' worth of conversation rather than one.

It's an option worth considering.

Oblivion, I oppose your logic the loudest because, quite simply, your logic is fundamentally flawed! It's as simple as that.

In your first premise:
I can promise everyone of you that it is my EXPRESS belief that there is a correlation between the characters and the roles. - Oblivion.

I wonder why I oppose this, especially after Neb has EXPLICITLY said that THIS IS NOT THE CASE! If Oblivion is going to use logic like this throughout the game... well... he's not going to be very helpful to the town (of course presuming that he IS on the town's side).

DG, Where did Neb say that the characters had nothing to do with the potential roles? I missed that if it was ever stated. That is where I was headed as a clue, since everyone claims to be innocent anyway.

Phrase That Pays-The Academy Is...


i have this part in my head..

----------
I'm going to ask you a series of questions,
And I want them answered on the spot, right now.
Is it serious?
I'm afraid it is.
Am I gonna die?
Well son, death is gonna catch up to all one day,
But yours is coming quicker than ours, than ours.
-----------

I will tell you this, i have left clues as to my thought process...
you know my ideas on who the roles are.. based on characters.. and i backed the idea that roles are highly correlated on the characters... and you know i claimed to be not mafia, and i have pointed the finger at DG to get things rolling on someone and end this god forsaken day one.... oh and you know I'm the Hardee's star
there is a hidden gem in there that mayhaps sage or biscuit will find.. i dunno bout the rest of you though...

First of all, a big boost on my List of Suspicion for Sanshiro (and, to some extent, Kong). After I pointed out the dangers of putting Oblivion close to a lynch, Sanshiro, you went and put him ONE away from a lynch. Despite, in your post, saying there wasn't enough evidence to lynch him.

That was dangerous.

Now...I believe Oblivion to be innocent. I think it'd be a mistake to lynch him today.

I am switching my vote back to darkguy, and I even think he may be the lynch for today. First of all, a No Lynch almost always helps the mafia...and I think it would help the mafia in this case. We would gain nothing out of letting them kill one of us...it's too early to draw connections between night kills and mafia members. Also, we don't need to go to Day 2 to have conversation...that's misleading. We can talk all we want on Day 1, while all of us are still alive.

Lynching darkguy will also, with a sense of finality, answer the question of whether or not roles are connected with characters. I still think Neb would have designed it that way.

If roles AREN'T connected with characters, and darkguy is innocent, then we have a pretty good idea of who to go after Day 2.

Darkguy, if you're going to roleclaim, I would suggest you do it now. Unless something else pops up, I think you're the play for the day.

I also suggest that people currently voting for Oblivion unvote him.

i am going out of town and will have limited if any access for 2 days, so i will join with sage and vote darkguy rather than no vote at all.

Unvoking Oblvion.

Unvoking Oblvion.

Whatever. I'm afraid I have no special role.

I wasn't supporting No Lynch, I was merely giving it as an option. Looking at it COMPLETELY LOGICALLY, No Lynch is as good as a mislynch, except with one more townie, so it will be more useful if the doc manages to get in a save.

I' don't know which I'd prefer: a No Lynch with an extra townie to a 30% chance of hitting a mafia... thirty percent IS a rather good chance...

Corflu, Neb says it in his third post, I believe.

Sage, you are voting me on a a pair of misunderstandings, and somehow everyone is following you.
Will everybody PLEASE reread Nebs' third post at the start of this thread?

Based on my No Lynch post that is Sage's OTHER reason, thats' a misunderstanding too, on my part. I'm not used to games with no set time, I was just thinking lets' not lynch, and we have tomorrow to talk. Thats' rather confusing, I think, to most people who read it, because they didn't understand what I was thinking.

Still, if it helps weed out the mafia, I'll take a hit.

OK. Here's my assessment based on the information so far. I categorize based on who I think is townie, who I think is mafia, and who I'm unsure about. Again, I may be be wrong, but Sage asked me to post it before the mafia got to me. I expect to get killed by night time, so this is really for posterity.

Townie:
Oblivion (he promised! lol)
Sage (correct townie strat, if he's mafia we are screwed anyways)
Biscuit (cause i'm hardly ever mafia...lol)
tarim (lots of activity and sounds like he's trying)
darkguy00000 (almost had him in for unsure, but he's questioning a lot...and i like his posts)

Mafia:
Sanshiro (minimal activity, somethings he says don't hit me right)
Corflu (almost had him in unsure, but he's too smart to just sit back like he is if he was a townie)

Unsure:
kong (seems innocent, or is just pretending, not enough to go on)
Coopels (seems like a townie, but trying a bit too hard to blend in maybe, not sure)

In any case, I cannot vote in good conscience for either DG or Oblivion who seem like real townies (maybe with more townies we'd have the obligatory Oblivion lynch...lol) and we cannot afford to guess wrong, so I am going to vote for Sanshiro who in my gut feels like mafia.

My mistake, it's the FIFTH post by Neb (I didn't actually check, I knew it was around there somewhere).

Biscuit, , I'm scrutinizing your post intently..You may be close to Cluedo!

I agree with tarim, Biscuit's ideas seem pretty good and usually he is pretty close to the true when it comes to these things. My only concern with his post is that he doesn't mention mwmoss at all. By that i can only assume that he believes mwmoss to be a special role?

I'm still not going to jump on anyone yet though. There's just no good evidence that i can see against either Oblivion or dark as being a mafia or a townie. both defenses are pretty weak; although i guess Sage is convinced by Oblivion's riddle. I tried to figure it out for a few moments before giving up when my head started to hurt.

Oh crap, my cut/paste left him off accidentally. I wish I could edit my other post, but it is against the rules.

Unsure:
mwmoss - Either a townie or a clever mafia. If I knew him and his personality better, I could narrow it down a bit more.

I'm sorry Sage and whoever gone back on the Oblivion vote this time I object. I understand the method prescribed by Sage initially of exposing and protecting him (Sage) as the first phase of clearing him and then moving on, but I do not agree that sitting still is the way to go. If we want to expose the mafia we need to be active not sit still.

More than that, my suspicions have strengthened after I thought about it and maybe only because of the way some people express themselves. When someone repeatedly says "believe me, believe me" it sounds to me rather silly. Maybe I'm translating it wrong and maybe my own social culture makes it sound wrong like that, but this sounds bad to me. Thus I'm voting for Oblivion. This "believe me" sounded like a plea to 'urgently get off my back'.

If we are doing something wrong here to further the mafia's edge, then I need an explanation. Maybe I'm missing something, but if Oblivion has sparked suspicion in several people's minds for several reasons and voting for him follows Sage's initial plan, why aren't we doing it?

Mostly Sage, I object to the fact that you're going back and forth, suspecting someone, drawing a whole set of accusations against him and then withdrawing. How can we vote out the mafia if everyone is a suspect? This is not only highly suspicious but cleverly annoying. If anyone is accumulating suspicion in my eyes it's you. But aside from the kudos for playing this better than us, I think the suspicions should be acted upon and the "believe me" theme stuck in my mind.

If we ain't voting for Oblivion, I need a better reason than because Sage said he only 'suggested we think about it and not act'.

In my list of suspected mafia, and in the same list drawing mechanism some are so find of I will list:
Oblivion - for trying too hard and being unconvincing.
Sage - for toying with us too much and never drawing attention to himself. Not really aside from his initial plan which is all but forgotten (unless I'm missing something here).
the Biscuit - his posts are always too vague. Never saying anything definite. lists, lists... Just like Sage spreading fog and drawing attention away from himself.
Corflu - who is supposedly still looking for a connection between suspected mafia and the fast-food roles thus he 'must' be good right?! No!
mwmoss - never said more than 5 words I think...

Unless I'm told why voting on my suspicion on Oblivion is wrong and why it spoils any semblance of a plan we had initially (Sage's original), I'm not changing my vote. I think the mafia are toying with us and I'm not sure how all this complicated back and forth is helping us take action against them.

The (Burger-)King has spoken.

Oblivion's clue has something to do with sage changing his mind i'm sure of it. I'm almost sure that sage knows something that most of the rest of us don't, but for now i trust that he isn't leading us astry.