I thought I was Portugal???

You are

Sorry my bad.

For some reason I forgot that kong was Norway...

Norway is dead (kong) and Bud_C who is still alive, is Portugal.

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Mod note 10:

It is now Day 2.

Feel free to resume your discussions and accusations!



Now are left:
5 Leaders of the Free World
1 Secretary of the UN (Doctor)
1 Head of the Security Council (Detective)
3 Axis of Evil Leaders

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Well zees isn't very good but it could have been a lot worse than just losing ze Norwegian premier during ze premier day.
Personnement, I felt ze shadow of Madame Guillotine bearing down on mon neck just as ozzers were feeling and had un fitful nuit's sleep.
But for le defenestration of kong we could even be an extra good guy down, but also possibly un axis leader.
We are still none ze wazzer and Ah for one am keeping mon vert on Monsieur Renault's head a ce moment.

Ok, I guess I have to defend my 'Sage' vote, as it seems to have raised a few eyebrows...especially Neb's.

The logic behind the vote was two-fold:
(1) Simply to try and force Sage into the game...something he had not been a part of for pretty much the entire first day. It has been a common ploy to use throughout all the mafia games, so I gave it a shot. And it worked...Sage did indeed reply shortly thereafter. It was stated by several that it was a waste because Sage would be investigated first night. But we have no way to know that did indeed happen. It was supposed to happen last game as well...but didn't.

(2) I did not have a good enough feel against either of the two people on bandwagons...Renno and Oblivion. They may indeed turn out to be mafia before it's over, but my thinking at the time was it was better not to be wrong and take out an active townie, versus the other outcome, which was losing a player that was never going to be any help to the town at all (through the mod-kill). Even with the loss of kong, we got through the first day with the same number of players that STARTED last game, and I think that's pretty significant.

And the great news is that we also got through the night without losing either our doc or detective, which is a HUGE bonus! Thanks for missing them mafia

Now we have all the talk from yesterday and what will be happening today to go through, along with what appears to be a successful investigation first night from our Head of the Security Council, and active participation from the Secretary of the U.N.(he took Sage's advice and protected someone else- himself!).


I'll check back later for more comments from everyone else. I'm especially interested to see if the detective has anything to say.

Sanshiro- What is the deadline for the end of day 2? Is it 1200 game time tomorrow (24 hrs.)?

The doctor can save himself? Wow...good news for us. Although I'm not sure I like the idea of our mod telling everyone who the doctor protects...that'd make it too easy for the mafia to analyze the doctor's thought processes and pick him off.

The good news right now, though, is that our doc is lynchproof and nightkill-proof. Invincible townie!

While I did not post this thought before the end of day one I had serious doubts about the votes against renno but now that the mafia have taken out mwmoss I began to question why him? He was fairly inactive and did not really post anything of substance until the post below and I think it hit a nerve with the mafia.

He posted : “Alright, just FYI, I just voted for Renno. I am not completely sure about him him being mafia. So, why would I do this? Well, There are a few people who I think are Mafia and by being the third to vote for him I can still unvote before he gets, ah, ask to leave the UN. Renno, I will say I am sorry if you get lynched and turn out to be a townie.”

I think we were super close to getting a mafia member in either renno or oblivion and I find it more than a coincidence that they voted for each other and that renno’s vote 30 minutes before the deadline saved himself and oblivion by giving us the tie. I just wish now that I would have seen a connection and switched my vote so as to avoid the tie and thus giving them a free ride with the death of kong.

Look at the death.
Italy. (mwmoss)

Remember who he was against, mate. Who's side was he on, eh?

Remember these facts and I promise you that we'll find the bloody killer. Worse than a redcoat he is...





Vote Renno today.

I think killing mwmoss is a mafia tradition now, because it never makes any sense. Killing him denies us any sort of clue as to who the mafia could be...which is very beneficial to the mafia.

I'm very hesitant about this Renno bandwagon now...there isn't enough evidence for it to be this powerful. I think the mafia are driving it. At the moment, I suspect Bud or Oblivion.

oi!

driving the bandwagon you say?

i missed the last 24+hours of day one!!!!


how can i drive anything? i think i'd've hit a 'roo or something in that time....

And, of course, Oblivion, the mafia probably did that to trick us. And, OF COURSE, that leads us into a REALLY annoying loop of circular logic.

I've got a thought that possibly two of the mafia were already voting for kong, because, at one point, he had five votes, that means he was two short. Well, at least Sage said so. I think. That means that there were two mafia on him (possibly three) OR the mafia didn't want kong dead.

Now the difference between this and a similar case last game is that in THIS game there was a possibility that kong would be modkilled. That chance might have encouraged the mafia to leave him alone and hopefully (for them) to get modkilled.

In regards to actual suspicious, I don't think anything is REEEEAALLY suspicious, or even suspicious enough to warrant my vote. Currently it is 7 town to 3 mafia, right? That means we have two more mislynches to afford, but we also need three correct ones amongst those. With the doctor, of course, it might make the odds even easier for us.

Good news is doc and detective lived...and the mafia was to afraid that Sage would be protected to go for him either! Yay! Since no detective has come forward, we must assume that Sage is innocent. This would be where you earn you keep Sage...

With moss and kong gone, I don't really see any easy connections to make, or any other mysteries that were revealed since our last postings...oh, wait, I do.

One thing that the voting did reveal was Renno and Corflu jumping on Oblivion at the last minute. Renno, I think I can understand, as he was saving his own hide...but Corflu leaves me a little more suspicious with his last second change...I just checked. Renno changed at 22:24, and Corflu at 23:05. This gave Oblivion the majority vote (4).

Anyone else think this a bit odd? Let's hear some thoughts...

Also, Oblivion is still not himself, and I still suspect him.

Neb

ps - drink vodka!

Neb, what do you mean I am not myself? I have decided to play this game with a more serious inclination that I exhibited in previous rounds. I believe that the evidence you pointed out, as well as the fact that one of the people voting against Renno died, clearly identifies Renno as Mafia.



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Since Darkguy brought up the fact that there is circular logic at work I will once again embark upon a Drool Report.

Facts:
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1. Votes pitted Renno and myself against each other.
2. Mwmoss voted Renno.
3. Corlu and Renno voted against me near the last second.
4. Mwmoss was killed by mafia.

Scenarios:
----------

1. The most straightforward option would be that Renno is mafia. In this case, Renno was almost voted to be lynched, and he had Corflu join against me to force a tie vote and cause kong to die instead of Renno. Then, during the night, Renno and the mafia killed off Mwmoss, one of his enemies, so he isn't put at risk today.

2. Another sort of straight forward option would be that I am mafia. In this case, I would have Renno all but eliminated, and then Corflu, a citizen, decided I was mafia and forced a tie. Due to the tie, I would kill mwmoss in the night to cast suspicion on Renno. Then today, Renno would die.

3. The third option isn't so straight forward. In this option, I am mafia. In this option, I have Renno all but voted off. Yet, I get one of my mafia buddies to vote for me. This has a two major affects. A) My mafia buddy looks more innocent while I remain alive B) Renno stays alive. Thus, day one, kong falls to the modkill. Then in the night, I kill off a supporter of mine, and blame Renno, casting suspicion on him. Now that everyone is convinced of his guilt, he is lynched day two. Night two us mafia kill another townie. Now, there are 4 dead townies, and 0 dead mafia from 2 days off play. A pretty good payoff. Not to mention there are no obvious mafia members to vote for day 3, because I can claim I am town, and the mafia simply allowed to townies to duke it out for two days in the public eye.

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yeah, those are my three propositions... needless to say, I will declare number one my suspicion

Oh, and there is a situation 4:

Renno is mafia, and laughing his ass off at the fact that over half of my original situations involved me being mafia. Thus, he will use my completely analytical and unbiased analyzation against me to 'prove' I am mafia and get me killed day 2.

Dare I say it? I actually comprehend what Oblivion is thinking! This in itself is scarey fact...

You make some good points Oblivion...why didn't you ever post like this in a game before? I would be less inclined to notice the 'seriousness' of your play this game as an indication something is up.

I'm not jumping to conclusions, but Renno and Corflu look more suspicious...Oblivion...why don't you suspect Corflu? His actions have been more suspicious, I think.

I want to hear what more people think, too...

Neb

I agree with Oblivion. Those are the four cases. But we can't objectively pick between any of them. THAT is where the circular logic kicks in.

Theres' also Case 5, which I think nobody thought of:

BOTH Oblivion and Renno are citizens. To "fan the flames" the mafia kills mwmoss, setting this events in motion and making it very confusing.

Not enough people have truly posted to figure out who is the mafia. But in my opinion, one of them is mafia (of course out of Obli and Renno, I mean). Which leads me to the OTHER forgotten case:

Case 6: BOTH Oblivion and Renno are mafia, possibly Corflu too. They were just about to lynch... I forgot who was going to be lynched, but then Corflu ties it and then they kill Kong. THEN they nightkill mwmoss, possibly sacrifice a member and try to win with their good odds.

Sage, I don't understand your logic. You say Renno is on your suspicion list and you vote for him then turn around and say mafia is leading the current vote for him ?

I voted for Oblivion and only Oblivion. I still feel that he is mafia and it’s only confirmed in my mind by the fact that 4 of the 6 scenarios on the table point to that fact. I tried to link Renno to him also because it seemed logical to me and we needed some more controversy to try and root out the other 2 mafia members. If Renno can put up something of substance I will more than listen… but I still have not changed my vote from oblivion..

Maybe that’s my problem in this game.. there is no true logic.. just circular logic !!

WOW what a rollercoaster, I thought only a woman could keep so many played scenarios straight in their head, you guys got this stuff down!

Why am I still alive? Why did you guys kill moss? you had him fooled.

Why I switched my vote is easy, I've been saying a from the start my suspicions lie with obi and tarim, there were 2 votes on obi so why wouldn't I switch?

I'll have to post more later after I've read through all this from start to finish 5 times, I really thought that if I didn't get lynched I'd get my throat cut so didn't expect to be here.

@Neb
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I don't NOT suspect Corflu, I simply suspect Renno more.

@Bud
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Why do you suspect me over the other suspects?

@Renno
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There is the possibility that you are a citizen. I really do apologize if you are. But I feel very strongly that you are mafia at this point in time.

@Everyone else
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I will be on another hour or so.. and then not again for almost 24... (yay spring musical practice!!!!)

I feel good about Neb at this point. Of course, Neb knows me well enough to earn my trust, even when he doesn't deserve it.

I can't help but notice that Renno's play is very similar to how Sanshiro played in the past couple of games: play up the complexity of mafia, pretending that it's extra difficult, so that we think this is all going over your head and thus discount you.

Question for you, Renno: why do you believe you are so high on the mafia's priority list that they would nightkill you after almost getting you lynched? Obviously if you almost got lynched once, they could push for you again the next day.

Considering your experience with this game, killing moss points more towards you being mafia, especially considering your latest posts. The "why'd you kill moss, you had him fooled" just screams mafia to me.

I'm gonna go check the vote thread. If Renno doesn't have many votes, I'll vote him.