Oh, and we wont lose the doctor. Neb also specifically stated that Req in Disguise could protect himself.

oh mwmoss...

Neb: "The game is played in a traditional, C9 setup. This means that we are using one of the following FOUR setups. You do not know which setup we are using. So you can''''t count of a doctor saving you, or wait for the detective to come out with all the answers!

(1. Five Townies, two Mafia
(2. Four Townies, one Detective, two Mafia
(3. Four Townies, one Doctor, two Mafia
(4. Three Townies, one Doctor, one Detective, two Mafia"


Doesn''t that mean that any of those four scenerios is possible? Well at least numbers 3 and 4 since there pretty much has to be a doctor at this point.

Oh, the doctor CAN protect himself?

That''s...very, very odd. In that case, the doctor should definitely come out! As long as we don''t LYNCH him, the town can''t lose!

This is definitely a boon for us, and we can''t afford to lynch our invincible player. The doctor should come out and confirm who he protected. Then the doctor should protect himself, letting the known townie die at night if we mislynch. Then we''ll have two unknown townies and a doctor going into Day 3.

The good news is that, best case scenario, we pick the mafia and win with 2 townies and the doctor left. Worst case scenario, we lynch a townie, the mafia kills a townie, and then the game is a draw.

So really, at this point, we can''t lose!

Doctor, come on out!

Actually, wait.

I''m sure when Neb sees his mistake, he''s likely to change it. At that point, if the doctor has been outted, he''s dead.

I can''t imagine any moderator wanting a game where it''s impossible for one side to win. That''s why traditionally doctors can''t do this.

In the meantime, let''s discuss: Is it still worth it for the doctor to come out, even if it means his death? On one hand I think that having two confirmed town would be worth it, on the other hand I''d like to see the doc live.

And, like I said before, if we have a detective with a guilty verdict, he needs to come out too. But a detective with an innocent can''t necessarily be trusted.

Well I say ... it''s like shooting to kill a bird and striking oil in the ground!!! ... I''m exited.

Now I know what to do next. The worst thing is my tought process can''t be really explained due to the implications it brings.

What to do ... what to do.

Anyhow ... we took a great step forward ... that was 1 in a million and I''m really happy.

I know ask of the voters to come forward and explain why they voted for the minner.

I''ll explain mine. It''s simple ... I wanted the turn to end and us to start moving. If it costed the life of a townie ... well tough deal, but otherwise my vote from fufu would have left us for days and days there. So it was not a scientific or educated vote, it was driven for the cheer pressure to incite a lynch and get a result.

After this round I have a bunch of things to digest and understand ...

Anyhow ... a beer to us.!

Well i''ve thought about this and looked at everyone''s thoughts about the night and whether or not the doctor should come out. Considering at this point there is 1 mafia, 1 doctor, and 4 nobles (possibly one detective) that gives us some good odds.

I''ve thought about this and made my up my mind. I''m the Doctor or rather, Req (in discuise).

Last night I almost saved myself since i couldn''t figure out much of anything (obvious by my vote ). Instead I changed my mind at the last instant and decided to save gueritol since he was the person i trusted to be a noble over anyone else. Apparently it paid off since nobody was killed.

As Sage said this would mean i''d almost be invincible unless Neb changes the fact that i can save myself and the town wouldn''t kill me. I''m going to assume that i can''t save myself since that makes the game pointless if i''d basically win in the end. (Perhaps for future games the doctor can save himself until he comes out as the doctor).

Hopefully someone counter claims me as the doctor. I''m assuming no noble would do that since it would be pointless for us all. The only person that would counter claim now would be mafia. Like i said hopefully this happens because that would end the game pretty fast with only possibly mislynching me, but getting the mafia right after that the next day.

So gueritol is a noble and i''m the Doctor. That gives two confirmed people now. Let''s go from there...

Ok, I think mafia not attacking is a non-possible scenario. I think they attacked.

So I think my self do I thank Coopels for saving me-butt from some evil mafia tried to fry me-butt, or Coopels is the only evil mafia and he is tricking us.

Now to the task at hand.

If Coopels is the doctor then he''ll die tonight if we don''t kill the mafia.

Now to recap, there are two scenarios:

1.- Coopels is the only mafia left, so he''s confident he won''t die, and he confuses the hell out of us.

2.- Coopels is the doctor and he came out on a limb risking his permanence on the game to help the town survive, and eliminating two variables from the 6 left ... Him the doctor and I the townie, that still leaves 4 players to figure out.

So we can play it safe and wait for coopels to die and we eliminate option 1, and then we can be 100% sure the mafia is outthere, and continue forward without a doctor, or we lay it out on the table like he did and we unmask the mafia''s.

Let me explain what I mean.

Potentially we could have a detective out there, if we do, then last night he should have been able to:
a) spot the mafia and we''re done, or
b) spot a townie

So either case it''s an improved probability.

Option a) ... well 100% we win.
Option b) that leaves 2 players to figure out ... we go for one .... we fail ... next night we win.

I think we can make this really fun ... opinions.

If there is a detective ... should he come out in the open? I think yes!

Your right Coopels, there is no garantee of there being a Mogerator. Let us hope Neb doesn''t change his mind about you protecting yourself. (And for future reference I really like the idea of a doctor roll being able to protect himself until he is revealed.)

If someone counter claims, then either you or he are the double-teamer and we just off both of you on successive days and win anyway.

I think that is fairly obvious so I will agree that you and Geritol are Nobles. (Which kind of throws me for a loop since I actually had a little suspicion of Geritol!)

Geritol, I do NOT think the Mogerator, if there is one, should reveal himself UNLESS he investigated someone other than you or Coopels.

I haven''t changed my reasons why I voted for Minner. His jumping on top of Geritol''s vote, the overly detailed explanation and then defensiveness of why he did so, and just the over the top ''I''m a newbie, please help me'' routine were suspicious to me.

So, that leaves me, Jmac, Sage, and Fufu.

I am at a bit of a loss as to what to think. If a double-teamer were going to off his buddy to make himself look good, he would have wanted to cast the 4th vote, but that was Geritol.

My first instinct is to look at Fufu. He did not vote for Minner. Everything points to him. It is entirely possible that me, Sage, or Jmac are crafty enough to vote for a buddy and just let him die to be camoflaged, but I really don''t see any reason to believe that scenario.

I am placing a vote on Fufu as soon as I post this. I doubt he will get to 4 votes so fast I can''t remove it if I change my mind.

Ah, well, things are getting rather interesting now. We have two confirmed townies, and a vote has already been cast in my direction.

And i must say that i did not expect to get a vote for not voting to kill somone. I did however plan to vote for the minner. I just missed a day due to school starting and when i returned the final vote had already been cast and the moon was high in the sky.

Which leads me to ask if you have any more reason to vote for me? My mere absence of a vote is a tad less than i would expect. But if that is your outlook on things then so be it.

As far as the detective goes i think he should stay in hiding, assuming there is one. If he reveals himself and the true double teamer is not killed, then the detective is likely to die in the night. My advice to you is stay hidden for the time being.

Yay Coopels! I''m glad you''re on our side! I really was fearing that you''d end up being the second mafia...you''d be too crafty to really catch.

I''m disappointed that gueritol is your confirmed townie, though...I was already pretty sure he was a townie. But still, good to know for sure! Still, I''ve spent most of today thinking that I was the one who got saved during the night, and I was hoping you could clear me. Now we have to deal with the fear of Sage. *sigh*

I''m not going to be 100% sure of your doctor-ship until Jmac posts without counterclaiming, but I''m 99% sure...you''re smart enough to know that false claiming would lose you the game at this point.

And now, before I dive into my next point, I''d like to point out that the TRUE reason we don''t want the detective to come out without a guilty verdict isn''t any sort of value on his life, but because there''d be no way to trust his claim.

I have an idea of who we need to look at next. Expect that post later on tonight.

And, just for the record, I want to say this to Coopels:

I realize that there is an alternative possibility, although a ballsy one. After losing your "newbie" crony, you realized you would need to pull some trick to win this one. So you purposely did NOT kill someone last night, with the intention of making it appear as if a doctor saved someone. You then intended to claim doctor, praying that the coin flip would go your way and there would be no counterclaim.

However, I''ve been in that situation before, in a different mafia game...I didn''t have the guts to flip that coin. If you have indeed flipped the coin and succeeded, then congratulations...you have won. I can''t in good conscience vote to lynch you, so you have won.

You''re the only one I can think of who would be sneaky enough to pull that off. However, since it''s useless to dwell on this any more, I will now continue the game and banish my paranoia.

Okay men,
I am only sorry that mwmoss'' idea was so quickly adopted by people without examining the ramifications of doing so.

The non-role Nobles such as myself are now precariously balancing between the idea that others are maintaining that Coopels is the Doc, therefore narrowing the scope of focus to the rest of us. Is this valuable based solely on Coopels assertion that he is, in fact, the Doctor? No. The fact does remain that coopels COULD be the mafia, and is seeing this opportunity to idict someone else without ever having to mention a single name.

I am also curious as to how mentioning who Coopels saved (if the doc) is going to help things. From the looks of it, it simply made Gueritol a possible target for a night kill in the future, if Gueritol is a Noble. (You can all reason that through well enough without me explaining it).

Here is another horrid fact of Coopels announcing himself as the Doctor. If someone else is the doctor, (which would make Coopels mafia), the actual Doctor is now more of a target by our own deductive reasoning, and would perhaps be even more a target if a counter-claim was made later.

I am VERY happy that we lynched correctly, and I will address my reasoning for my vote below, but I must first warn everyone to be especially careful at this point, because having a role defined does NOT help the Townie cause, in my opinion. The mafia now has very specific information with which to manipulate, and the fact that we have all voiced in means that the mafia has already started using this ''I''m the Doctor assertion'' to manipulate.

Now, as for my reasoning for The Minner vote: I evaluated The minner as very poorly attempting to direct votes toward someone without any plausible explanation. This happened repeatedly, and therefore made me suspicious enough to vote for him with a high degree of confidence.

I am NOT confident now - but I will tell you one thing - I would rather be voted to be lynched by my fellow nobles if doing so would clear up the air that this Role Assertion has caused. Please, everyone - let''s be very careful now.

Jmac

Well, we have reason to trust Coopels.

(1. There is evidence that there is a doctor. Nobody was night killed last night. It is possible that Coopels-mafia did that on purpose, but such a scheme would have a 50% failure rate...far higher than I think Coopels would be willing to accept, considering that he would think he could win through traditional means.

(2. There has been no counterclaim, meaning either that Coopels is telling the truth or that he DID take the huge risk and succeeded.

We can talk ourselves in circles about whether or not Coopels is telling the truth, but from a probability standpoint, it''s FAR more likely that he''s telling the truth. Unless somebody has evidence to the contrary or seriously thinks we should lynch him DESPITE the odds being in his favor, do speak up.

I could even see an argument to be made for lynching him "just in case" since we do have a free lynch. I don''t think it''d be a very good argument, but the argument is present. The problem is that, if he is the doc, that will leave us with both him and gueritol dead, no doc, and four unknown players tomorrow.

I think our odds are best if we take Coopel''s word and begin sorting through our remaining players...myself, Jmac, moss, and fufu.

I do think we need to be JUST as careful today as we were yesterday. The good news is that with such a high burden of votes (I think it''s still four to lynch?) the chances of us lynching too quickly is much lower.

lol at Sage. So suspicious.

Though that would be the only scenerio in which i''d be mafia. The risk to do so would be incredably high if i were mafia and claimed doctor. For one there would be a great chance of a doctor in the game meaning a counterclaim. that would completly end the game quickly.

Next even if i''d take that risk i know i could have manipulated people easier than putting myself straight into the front light. There is a reason Sage was worrying about me. The one time i was mafia i manipulated people the whole game all the way to the end where i finally got the other last townie to vote for Sage.

In the end, everything combined would not make a fake claim as doctor likely to win the game for me as mafia.

Now i kinda want to know why you''re so suspicious of me, Jmac. Despite little to no evidence you seem convinced that i''m not telling the truth about being the doctor.

This is the part that really worries me...

"The mafia now has very specific information with which to manipulate, and the fact that we have all voiced in means that the mafia has already started using this ''''I''m the Doctor assertion'''' to manipulate."

The only risk for me being mafia is if someone counterclaimed or by the off chance that if i were mafia and didn''t kill someone. If you look back i was uncertain that the mafia could even do this as a tactic. In fact i didn''t even consider it right away and only considered it because i was suprised i actually saved gueritol with a random guess basically.

Oh and Sage... I thought about saving you, but i''m almost always suspicious of you in these games. I doubt i would ever try saving you simply because i couldn''t be certain i wouldn''t be wasting my save on mafia.

Now, Coopels, you can clearly see that I am not voicing concern about you telling the truth when I say this:

"The mafia now has very specific information with which to manipulate, and the fact that we have all voiced in means that the mafia has already started using this ''''''''I''''m the Doctor assertion'''''''' to manipulate."

Instead, what I am doing is stating that the mafia can use your assertion of being The Doctor to manipulate us - and I was pointing out that because everyone has already voiced in - this means that the mafia is already manipulating us.

Please, let me once again speak plainly, I am not trying to imply that you are lying, Coopels. I am, however, trying to bring to light the many problems I think that you admitting that you ARE the Doctor might bring the town.

I believe we shall continue to witness the posts surrounding this fact, and am worried that the waters were actually muddied, not cleared. Will the posts help us lynch the remaining mafia? I dunno, but I, for one, am un-convinced that this logic is going to help our town.


Time will tell.


Jmac

ok thanks for clearing that up a bit. The thing with "i''m a doctor assertion" manipulating the town said to me that i was trying to manipulate people by saying i''m the doctor. my mistake there if that''s what you meant.

I didn''t make the decision lightly, but i did decide to reveal it for one to save myself loads of suspicion i knew would come my way because i didn''t vote for minner. I don''t mind suspicion, but when it would be pointless against me and more useful on people that couldn''t be proven.

And second having two people known is better when trying to figure out who''s who. Instead of 6 possibly guilty people there are now 4. 1 out 6 is more difficult than 1 out of 4 in my opinion.

Reading the post about me posting the 4th vote ... kind''a made me think that I should have waited ... and see how jumped the wagon.

Darn!, my bad.

Anyhow ... I''ll play coopels game now.

Sadly ... I''m not townie ...

I''m the detective ... and I investigated and found out another townie ... who is nwmoss.

Now ... this might open the chance for me or nwm to be killed and also coopels.

But leaves only Jmac, sage and fufu as possible mafias.

Easy ...

Well that''s if we believe any of the stuff that we have posted here.

Coopels = Doctor
Gueritol = Detective
Nwmoss = Townie

Now go fish

BTW:
it should be: have waited ... and see WHO (not now) jumped the wagon