Most vets will probably already know some variant on this...but I have...a 'spiritual obligation' to fill in the newbies and such on it. Let's just say I have some 'payback' to make for 'excessive praying'

'Break-Even Time' (BET) is the name I've given for some simple maths - for the time it takes for an 'investment' to 'pay you back'.

1st Example.

'Taxes' is given in the logickal tech tree as costing 4000 gold. It gives you 1000 gold back. BET - 4 turns. After 4 turns of having this tech, any extra gold is yours. 'Investment' repaid.

But it isn't always the case that you'll be repaid directly in kind. 'Timber Cutting' costs 1000 gold and 500 wood, and gives +50 wood back. Clearly, the wood portion will pay you back in 10 turns, But what of the gold? This is where the skill of good approximation comes in.

There's a clue elsewhere in the game. The market gives you gold values for ALL resources, allowing you to interchange the value it gives for wood straIght into gold. (Note here - I didn't change it into the sale or buying price. Why? You could be buying OR selling wood, depending on what you do with the gains from the upgrade. Selling the produce for gold, or using it in a project that you'd otherwise have to buy off the market. Picking the right approximation is important! )

So we count each wood for it's marekt price - 10 gold - and multiply it by 50 - how much it'll give you per turn. This gives 500 gold - 1000 will cover the tech - so you need 10+2 =12 turns for the tech to break even and for you to get your investment.

Other approximations are less obvious:

Market Tribute
Your market vendors now send tributes bringing approx 20-25 of each resource and 6-9 Gems per turn.

This tech doesn't have a set amount for an output. So the way you'd get around this is to average out the figures:
20-25, average 22.5
6-9, average 7.5

The tech costs: 1000/100/200/200/200 (gold/gems/metal/stone/wood )

This one is less simple because your don't get the resources back in even amounts. But again, convert as you go:

22.5 * 9 = 202.5 resources

So the main resources will repay in 9 turns, with 7.5 spare (treating them as being worth 10 gold per unit)
We'll count the spare as having been turned into gold (75).
As the turns pass, we can use the spare resources to pay off the other resource types. (Gold, not made and gems, some made but not fast enough for outright payback in time.)

22.5 * 3 = 67.5 resources * 10 = 675 gold

By turn 11, the gold aspect is paid off with some spare. A turn or two more, the gem aspect will be paid off too, subsidised by the 'value' of the other resources.

This is a nasty and fussy way to go about justifying this tech, but you only need to prove it once
Also, you could take a rough guess just on the 3 main resource parts that it would take about 10-15 turns to pay you back. But the point is, you CAN derive detail from it, if you need it.

(continued later tonight, when I have time, not on a unix machine and Gequinn is not crying to leave )

LOL u spent alot of time on this, didn'y ya XXX?

Is this usefull?

It will be when I finish it

The next - AND MORE USEFUL STEP - is when you use things like this to directly compare two techs, two tactics, etc. to see which one will give you back the most.

For example, if you looked up Tax Reform, seeing it to be 6000 gold and 200 gems, then converting the gems into (200 * 25 = 5000) gold - you know that Tax Reform pays back in 11 turns. So you know to almost always get tax reform before the market tributes. (Unless you're so desperate for ALL resources except gold, you'd know you'd be buying them otherwise ) Once you know things like this, you won't need to work them out again until the rules change. So while it LOOKS like a lot of work, it's actually not because mainly it's a one-time investment.

Another advantage of this is, of course, if you KNOW, beyond doubt, that whatever trick or tactic you're using is mathematically the best, it helps wipe any doubt from your mind as to your choice of moves, and stops you from those moments where you try to avoid heavily committing to any one plan, and lose the lot as a result.

You can use this in other places, like troop specials and the equipment techs, although the degree of accuracy will be far less. Say you have a choice between marksmen and ballista - you can work out exactly what each bonus is worth, then striaght-off compare the two sides. Experience tells you, for example, that you often fire at the full range or near to it of whatever ranged troop you use. So the marksmen special will get a lot of heavy use. You then compare this to the sorts of size stacks that a ballista will face, and it's ranged defence bonus. Towered ballista at full range will lose a lot of accuracy, so it may need a stack size like 80 for a target before it gains on the marksmen. Obviously, accurately working that out will be next to impossible, but using whatever information is on hand (spy reports, word of mouth, known player habits) you can usually get a pretty good idea of where your best hope lies, and a rough idea of how much advantage one will give over another.

For the equipment techs, you need to know first exactly what bonus a skill point even gives. Then, you need to consider what it's worth to get that on all your existing troops RIGHT NOW (and how soon they might be fighting, as new troops are not normally deployed immediately on the front line unless it's a siege) vs the cost of more troops instead, in terms of damage potential or health saved.

For one you yourselves can work on, consider pikemen vs mace...you will soon realise mace are not really TOTM-standard compared to pikes unless you're a) using them against the wrong targets or b) losing and outnumbered

Ultimately, it comes do to what you enjoy, and how much you want to win/what you want to achieve. If you just want to jump into a campaign, swing at whatever you run into, and don't care much for rank, you probably don't even need skill of any sort, only instructions on how to play. At the other far extreme, if you want to be competitive against the highest vets, it means you need super-regular logins, plans, all the intel and background knowledge you can get, and take every detail as seriously as you can. (Although even I have my limits! )

NOW is it useful?

"Is this usefull?" - frankenstein

That depends. Do you want to win?

Heres a hint, you cannot give different answers to both of these questions and be correct.

I think it can help a bit but it's not only this BET wich is important cause with 11000 gold you can buy a lot of troops wich can help you defend or steal resources from others who are only doing this tech.

@frankens - this is not a technology. This is a method by which you can calculate or make a better decisions regarding your options and potential technological investments. If you know how to use CTD's technique, you're better off understanding what your options are. Of course a pre-requisite of being able to do basic Maths is a must but, don't let 7 years repeating basic algebra daunt you.

btw, you can still use your gut-feeling to make decisions... hey, look at kingrichard, his ample gut helps him make great decisions and win many times, but you might not be so well invested in the gut area like him, thus using CTD's method might be of great help

ahhh...a good calculation is a good addition to the new version
but what i would say is just that it wasnt really needed
just estimate urself and then decide which you should do first or select

I know it's not a technology, I know what it is but I don't see the use. It depends of a lot of things beside the costs.

I've discovered that this game boils down to math and numbers. Especially in the higher level games. So yes, Frankenstien and Disturbed, this is important. You can determine how soon you will break even with your investment and from that you can decide which path is the best way to go.

TL

ok, didn't bother reading that stuff, get the gist of it tho, in fact Ive never considered it like that before but trying to get me to do it is like getting a duck to talk, never gona happen. Then again Im still relitivly new to this game, so Im still finding my way about.......

i didnt know bout you guys but what i think is that playing game is for having fun
i certainly wont be having fun calculating all those stuffs if u ask me but i guess you guys are...
but i would really appreciate those calculation as it`ll help me confirm what i estimated

p/s-i still get to the top despite all the calculation
lolz...as of the other game...not here

Oh, certainly, you still use your gut and you don't spend all day in front of the calc

Quite often, you'll do something like this with an idea of how you're meant to play the game already. It gets interesting when you find out (as in my case) just how stupid you were before

I had a personal phase where logic was a pain in the ... behind - and only served to make life seem to pass quicker and take the fun out of everything. The only problem THEN was, I found I was starting to lose what ability I DID have, because - as most of my 'technique' wasn't 'formalised'....I didn't even notice it escaping. It's often assumed that you (and even technology) only get better over time, but development can also go BACKWARDS as well as forwards.

Personally, I didn't like having my butt handed to me at EVERYTHING. So I decided I'd go back to logic

The big issue foor most peeps is stereotype of the total nerd, spending hours in a darkened room somewhere with a huuuuuge pile of papers with data - just to announce he's scientifically discovered the perfect height for a Christmas tree - vs the guy who plans nothing, and takes EVERYTHING as he goes - completely disorganised.

I certainly wouldn't recommend the latter, it's not as fun as it looks. Especially, as I said, when you get thrashed for being sub-par - but the other extreme is no more likely. I still keep few notes on combat mechanics. I rarely even write down what treaties I've signed in a game...

The BEST way to go about, as far as I can see, is you just look to how you're performing RIGHT NOW, and just look for places you can tighten it. So for example, if you keep finding you buy the wrong techs, are unsure about your decisions, or are never sure which tech to get next - then running some BET calcs on the techs, and making a few plans will SERIOUSLY help you. Does it need you to sit there for days? Heck no - the key is small steps. LOD's bio suggesting the Vikings 'sure didn't use calcs' supporting the AACC is -heavily misleading-. The vikings didn't walk in hexes or get their resources at the end of a turn, either - and they weren't one hex away from being able to pillage some town, and had to wait another hour to get there

Personally, I found the more you try to get away from logic and planning, the more obvious it is you need it and how it can help. No-one ever said that religion and science couldn't go together...or math and gut. Everyone just assumes it

(that post was MUCH too long, but the point badly needs to be made )

CTD, there's no need to apologise. You made a great contribution and explanation of this method is fantastic. Let all the 'Aces' who know everything better show us how good they are. NOT!

I am sure that all great players in WOL use this way of thinking one way or another. It's always easy to criticise someone for an effort they made, rather than make an effort yourself. It might be very possible that Boe or LOD or BA don't sit down with a calculator and find out the BET of their strategies but they sure understand every little aspect in that same BET way.

Gut feeling shmut feeling. There was never a general in history which became great or lasted long without careful planning and knowing every little aspect of his strategy. This BET is part of planning and although execution might change to fit circumstances, it is an interesting and valuable method of understanding the game better.

Sun Tsu said: Planning is everything, the plan is nothing.

no rog...u made us look like an ars***
no,we didnt criticise him. In fact,i support him and thank him for all the calculation. What i`m telling is that I!...and i mean I...surely wont do that because i didnt wanna make too much hw on a game but of course i would appreciate the already made calculation to further confirm my decision
for me,a game is for us to play and do mistakes and then...omg...what had i done?...pissed off and laugh after that

thats me...

err,... Disturbed - double to you


"u made us look like an ars***"

Nope I didn't! Did I mention your name? Was I even talking about you? I think you did it all by yourself ...blah, blah, blah... pants on fire...

I smell a little paranoia

from my lowely newbie point of view the only way 2 learn in Wol as in life is 2 make your mistakes get kicked in the teeth a couple a times....no pain no gain

hehe....yya..ya...i felt it!
arghhhhh

yeap...mistake is the best teacher

I get kicked by everyone, evan newbs sometimes.....

Wow, this is still going?
I might just have saved the strat forum

Seriously though...the mistakes count too. But mistakes won't teach you EVERYTHING...use the lot. This too

Ironically, I saw the same sort of debate in a Java (programming language, not the country or drink ) lecture only a couple of months back. Basically, some people were saying it was far easier to just, as you guys put it, was to go out and get kicked in the teeth (try out the code themselves). But not long after that, even they had to admit the lecture/'book learning' method couldnt' be left out entirely...